財技 - 買樓應該用長年期定短年期 (4)

好啦,又入番正題講番個NPV,上文講到係負利率的時間我地要拉到老閪咁長去供款,等通漲食撚晒我地個供款value,但我想再強調一點,我指出的係負利率時代,而唔係純低息,因為如果低息低通漲,就唔一定得出同一個答案。


相反,我地呢家就去研究下正利率時代(如果你唔撚記得正利率係乜,我本來想叫你禁番之前個article去睇,呃番你兩個點擊,不過算啦,我個人老實,打多次比你睇。正利率就係利息大過通漲。例如利息係5%,通漲係1%,咁5%-1% = 4%的正利率)。


咁係正利率的情況下,我地又用同样的方法計多次,下面又係好似之前用gohome個mortgage calculator計出黎的,














































Price



Initial
Deposit



70%
Mortgage



Years



Interest
rate



i
/ 12



n



Total
Repayment



Total
Interest



Monthly
Payment



Total
Cost



6,000,000



1,800,000



4,200,000



10



2.50%



0.208%



120



4,751,203



551,203



39,593



6,551,203



6,000,000



1,800,000



4,200,000



20



2.50%



0.208%



240



5,341,421



1,141,421



22,256



7,141,421



6,000,000



1,800,000



4,200,000



30



2.50%



0.208%



360



5,974,228



1,774,228



16,595



7,774,228




同样的case啦,都係600萬的樓,30%首期,借420萬上會,按息2.5%,平均每月0.208%,以10年計要比4,75M,利息551K,以30年計共比5.97M,利息就1.77M,原全同之前一样。


好啦,係呢個時候又到NPV出場,假設呢家個通漲好溫和,係1%,(1%少於2.5%按息),都好大機會係正利率,所以我地用又係excel起撚勢咁去計晒每個月每一期供款的PV,再加埋佢地,如下表:


























































































































House
A



6000000



10
Year



 



 



 



House
B



6000000



20
Years



 



 



 



House
C



6000000



30
Years



 



 





































Period



Cash
Outflow



Require
Ratio



Monthly
Rate



NPV





Period



Cash
Outflow



Require
Ratio



Monthly
Rate



NPV





Period



Cash
Outflow



Require
Ratio



Monthly
Rate



NPV



0



1,800,000.00



1%



0.0833%



1,800,000.00





0



1,800,000.00



1%



0.0833%



1,800,000.00





0



1,800,000.00



1%



0.0833%



1,800,000.00



1



39,593.36



1%



0.0833%



39,560.39





1



22,255.92



1%



0.0833%



22,237.39





1



16,595.08



1%



0.0833%



16,581.26



2



39,593.36



1%



0.0833%



39,527.45





2



22,255.92



1%



0.0833%



22,218.87





2



16,595.08



1%



0.0833%



16,567.45



3



39,593.36



1%



0.0833%



39,494.54





3



22,255.92



1%



0.0833%



22,200.37





3



16,595.08



1%



0.0833%



16,553.66



中間又再次skip唔知幾撚多條rows





































































117



39,593.36



1%



0.0833%



35,916.69





237



22,255.92



1%



0.0833%



18,268.72





357



16,595.08



1%



0.0833%



12,326.24



118



39,593.36



1%



0.0833%



35,886.78





238



22,255.92



1%



0.0833%



18,253.51





358



16,595.08



1%



0.0833%



12,315.97



119



39,593.36



1%



0.0833%



35,856.90





239



22,255.92



1%



0.0833%



18,238.31





359



16,595.08



1%



0.0833%



12,305.72



120



39,593.36



1%



0.0833%



35,827.04





240



22,255.92



1%



0.0833%



18,223.13





360



16,595.08



1%



0.0833%



12,295.47



啦,今次加埋的NPV以1%正利率時間計:


10年支出的NPV = 6.46M
20年支出的NPV = 6.71M
30年支出的NPV = 6.96M


今以證明,正利率的情況下,我地就應該用越短的年期供甩佢。記住,按息高低只係答案的一半,我地要知道埋通漲先知點做。


呢一個系列已經差唔多到尾聲,我之後會再做總結,講下成個供款年的策略部署。


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