財技 - 買樓應該用長年期定短年期 (4)
好啦,又入番正題講番個NPV,上文講到係負利率的時間我地要拉到老閪咁長去供款,等通漲食撚晒我地個供款value,但我想再強調一點,我指出的係負利率時代,而唔係純低息,因為如果低息低通漲,就唔一定得出同一個答案。
相反,我地呢家就去研究下正利率時代(如果你唔撚記得正利率係乜,我本來想叫你禁番之前個article去睇,呃番你兩個點擊,不過算啦,我個人老實,打多次比你睇。正利率就係利息大過通漲。例如利息係5%,通漲係1%,咁5%-1% = 4%的正利率)。
咁係正利率的情況下,我地又用同样的方法計多次,下面又係好似之前用gohome個mortgage calculator計出黎的,
Price | Initial | 70% | Years | Interest | i | n | Total | Total | Monthly | Total |
6,000,000 | 1,800,000 | 4,200,000 | 10 | 2.50% | 0.208% | 120 | 4,751,203 | 551,203 | 39,593 | 6,551,203 |
6,000,000 | 1,800,000 | 4,200,000 | 20 | 2.50% | 0.208% | 240 | 5,341,421 | 1,141,421 | 22,256 | 7,141,421 |
6,000,000 | 1,800,000 | 4,200,000 | 30 | 2.50% | 0.208% | 360 | 5,974,228 | 1,774,228 | 16,595 | 7,774,228 |
同样的case啦,都係600萬的樓,30%首期,借420萬上會,按息2.5%,平均每月0.208%,以10年計要比4,75M,利息551K,以30年計共比5.97M,利息就1.77M,原全同之前一样。
好啦,係呢個時候又到NPV出場,假設呢家個通漲好溫和,係1%,(1%少於2.5%按息),都好大機會係正利率,所以我地用又係excel起撚勢咁去計晒每個月每一期供款的PV,再加埋佢地,如下表:
House | 6000000 | 10 |
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| House | 6000000 | 20 |
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| House | 6000000 | 30 |
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Period | Cash | Require | Monthly | NPV | Period | Cash | Require | Monthly | NPV | Period | Cash | Require | Monthly | NPV | ||
0 | 1,800,000.00 | 1% | 0.0833% | 1,800,000.00 | 0 | 1,800,000.00 | 1% | 0.0833% | 1,800,000.00 | 0 | 1,800,000.00 | 1% | 0.0833% | 1,800,000.00 | ||
1 | 39,593.36 | 1% | 0.0833% | 39,560.39 | 1 | 22,255.92 | 1% | 0.0833% | 22,237.39 | 1 | 16,595.08 | 1% | 0.0833% | 16,581.26 | ||
2 | 39,593.36 | 1% | 0.0833% | 39,527.45 | 2 | 22,255.92 | 1% | 0.0833% | 22,218.87 | 2 | 16,595.08 | 1% | 0.0833% | 16,567.45 | ||
3 | 39,593.36 | 1% | 0.0833% | 39,494.54 | 3 | 22,255.92 | 1% | 0.0833% | 22,200.37 | 3 | 16,595.08 | 1% | 0.0833% | 16,553.66 |
中間又再次skip唔知幾撚多條rows
117 | 39,593.36 | 1% | 0.0833% | 35,916.69 | 237 | 22,255.92 | 1% | 0.0833% | 18,268.72 | 357 | 16,595.08 | 1% | 0.0833% | 12,326.24 | ||
118 | 39,593.36 | 1% | 0.0833% | 35,886.78 | 238 | 22,255.92 | 1% | 0.0833% | 18,253.51 | 358 | 16,595.08 | 1% | 0.0833% | 12,315.97 | ||
119 | 39,593.36 | 1% | 0.0833% | 35,856.90 | 239 | 22,255.92 | 1% | 0.0833% | 18,238.31 | 359 | 16,595.08 | 1% | 0.0833% | 12,305.72 | ||
120 | 39,593.36 | 1% | 0.0833% | 35,827.04 | 240 | 22,255.92 | 1% | 0.0833% | 18,223.13 | 360 | 16,595.08 | 1% | 0.0833% | 12,295.47 |
啦,今次加埋的NPV以1%正利率時間計:
10年支出的NPV = 6.46M
20年支出的NPV = 6.71M
30年支出的NPV = 6.96M
今以證明,正利率的情況下,我地就應該用越短的年期供甩佢。記住,按息高低只係答案的一半,我地要知道埋通漲先知點做。
呢一個系列已經差唔多到尾聲,我之後會再做總結,講下成個供款年的策略部署。
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